Weight stuck for 3-4 weeks despite a deep deficit. Creatine + 5x FBW – should I cut to 2200 kcal or wait for a whoosh?

Hey everyone, I need some advice because I'm slowly losing my mind. I've been on a cut for almost a month (since October 5th), keeping a clean diet and training hard, but the scale is barely moving. I'm completely stuck around 122.5 - 123 kg (270-271 lbs).

Here are my stats and routine:

Height / Weight / Age: 185 cm (6'1"), ~123 kg (271 lbs), 26M.

Activity: 5 heavy lifting sessions a week (Full Body Workout) + 8,000 to 14,000 steps a day. My smartwatch estimates my daily TDEE around 3200-3400 kcal.

Diet: Strictly weighing everything and tracking in an app. Eating 2400-2500 kcal a day.

Macros: Keeping protein high, always 180g+.

Supplements: 7g of creatine every day (steady dose, no loading phase).

The Problem:

My daily weight bounces around (e.g., 122.3 kg yesterday, 122.9 kg today), and my weekly averages have dropped by maybe half a kilo at best (123.1 kg -> 122.6 kg). I do feel some changes in the mirror, and the fat on my stomach feels "squishier" and softer, but the scale just won't budge. My long-term goal is to hit 95 kg (209 lbs) by May.

I keep hearing that with my weight and activity level, I'm definitely in a huge deficit, and the lack of scale movement is just water retention from the creatine and muscle inflammation from lifting 5x a week masking the fat loss.

My Question:

Is it actually possible for water weight from creatine and heavy lifting to mask 3-4 kg (6-8 lbs) of fat loss for a whole month? I'm starting to overthink it and wonder if 2500 kcal is somehow my maintenance calories and if I should drop down to 2200 kcal. Has anyone else experienced a massive, month-long water stall like this when starting a cut with creatine and heavy lifting? What would you do in my position?

submitted by /u/Pavveel
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from loseit - Lose the Fat https://www.reddit.com/r/loseit/comments/1xfs1qx/weight_stuck_for_34_weeks_despite_a_deep_deficit/