Discrepancy Between My “Maintenance Calories” During a Cut vs. Lean Bulk — I Have No Idea What My Real TDEE Is Anymore
Hi,
I’ve been tracking my weight and calories every day for few years (176 cm, 30 years old now, ~7–8k steps per day + strength training 3x/week). I have a pretty solid log, but the numbers I’m getting seem to contradict each other, and I can’t come up with a sensible explanation. I’m hoping someone here has seen something similar or can point out what I’m missing in my analysis.
In short, the background is: I spent over a year cutting (94.6 kg → 72.4 kg), finishing the cut on March 30, 2026 (DEXA: 13.2–13.3% body fat). After that I started a lean bulk, which lasted until recently, and I’m currently doing a mini-cut.
Here are the numbers from three periods (daily averages, based on my actual logs):
| Period | Weight: start → end | Change | Avg. kcal/day | Avg. weight change/week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June–December 2025 (cut) | 92.7 → 76.5 kg | -16.2 kg | 1,973 kcal | -0.53 kg/week |
| January–May 2026 (end of cut) | 76.6 → 74.2 kg | -2.4 kg | 2,387 kcal | -0.11 kg/week |
| June 2026–today (lean bulk) | 74.8 → 78.9 kg | +4.1 kg | 2,697 kcal | +0.31 kg/week |
Here’s what doesn’t add up for me. If I estimate my maintenance calories based on the rate of weight loss/gain and average calorie intake:
- based on the cutting periods, my maintenance comes out at roughly 2,550–2,650 kcal/day;
- based on the bulk, it comes out at roughly 2,250–2,350 kcal/day.
That’s a difference of around 300–350 kcal/day for the same person, at a fairly similar body weight (74–79 kg), with roughly similar activity levels.
The Mifflin-St Jeor equation with my activity level gives me roughly 2,640 kcal/day, which is much closer to what the cutting data suggests.
So my questions are:
- Is it normal for TDEE/metabolism to decrease this noticeably after a long and fairly aggressive cut (around 1,973 kcal/day for six months), even after calorie intake has been increased again? Or does a discrepancy this large point more toward a logging/measurement issue?
- During the bulk I had several completely unlogged days — weddings, bachelor parties, trips, etc. How realistic is it that a handful of days like this could underestimate my average intake by several hundred calories per day across the whole period, even if I wasn’t consciously binge-eating? I’m thinking especially about alcohol, restaurant food, worse sleep, increased sodium intake, etc.
- With this kind of discrepancy, would you trust the data from the longer and “cleaner” period more (the cut, with 210+ days of logs), or should I take this as evidence that something genuinely changed metabolically after dieting for over a year?
Thanks for any insight.
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from loseit - Lose the Fat https://www.reddit.com/r/loseit/comments/1w5zc2x/discrepancy_between_my_maintenance_calories/
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