I made a graph to show my actual weight vs. how much I should weigh based on CICO

I wanted to see how accurate tracking calories is. So I made a graph: https://imgur.com/gallery/1uQq3TJ

Explanation to graph:
yellow line: estimated weight based on formula below and calories out is option 1.
blue line: estimated weight based on formula below and calories out estimated by option 2.
black line: Scale weight (usually weighed in the morning).
Red dots are weigh-ins. (decided to try to weigh myself every day a bit into the challenge to keep more accurate track. Light blue stipled line: a "trend-line" for my scale weight.

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To predict my weight I used the formula:
Kg day 1 - ((calories out day 1 - calories in day 1) / 7700) = kg day 2 (estimate)
For example: 88.7kg - ((2348-1263)/7700) = 88.6kg
- assuming 1 kg of body fat = 7700 kcal (according to google)
and then I used the estimate of kg day 2 + tracked calories to estimate kg day 3... and so on.
Calories In: I used MyFitnessPal to track how much I ate. I have been trying to be accurate but it can never be 100% accurate.
Calories out: I used a fitness watch to track how much calories I used during the day. (garmin vivomove HR). The watch had a total amount of calories burned estimate (Option 1), but it is over-estimating my activity a bit it seems. So I tried another estimate (Option 2).
Option 2 is my basal metabolism (1550kcal) + "active calories burned" from the watch. This is closer, but maybe under-estimating my activity a bit. So I think the truth is somewehere in between.. as my actual weight is also somewhere in between on the graph :)

I just thought it was so interesting to see how weight loss is just basic maths. I am a huge geek and love statistics, so for me it actually helps to see the numbers. I have also tried to see for instance, how long until a certain weight if I keep the same activity level and eating habits and it is really encouraging to me. It also makes me less worried about the fluctuations on the scale. So I am sharing this in hopes of this maybe inspiring someone else :)

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submitted by /u/olnaso
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from loseit - Lose the Fat https://www.reddit.com/r/loseit/comments/avskfb/i_made_a_graph_to_show_my_actual_weight_vs_how/